A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
